The head of the state’s Democratic Party laid out the goal plainly over the summer.
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“Colorado Democrats have a plan to defeat every Republican member of Congress in our state,” Shad Murib announced in early August.
But the toughest nut to crack for the party across Colorado’s four GOP-held congressional districts was always the 4th, a sprawling district that takes in all or part of 21 counties across the state’s rural Eastern Plains and swaths of its populous Front Range.
It’s simply a numbers game, and one that greatly favors Republicans — in this case U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, who won the seat for the first time two years ago after having served two terms in Colorado’s 3rd District.
Republicans have nearly 100,000 more active registered voters than Democrats in the 4th Congressional District, with 276,000 unaffiliated voters making up the rest of the electorate — most of whom have leaned toward the GOP in recent election cycles.
Boebert faces Democrat Eileen Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral, in the Nov. 3 election.
“It is the most Republican district in the state,” said Robert Duffy, a political science professor at Colorado State University. “Is it going to be a good enough year for Democrats and a bad enough year for Republicans for Laubacher to overcome that?”
It really comes down to the particulars of the two women running, Duffy said, as well as a political environment that has turned ugly for Republicans, who are saddled by an unpopular president who has failed to tame the rise in prices that started under his predecessor.
Boebert, 39, has been the subject of several unflattering headlines since she first entered Congress nearly six years ago. She has also squared off against President Donald Trump in the last year — most notably on the president’s reticence to release files on Jeffrey Epstein and his decision to veto funding for a water pipeline in Boebert’s district.
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On the other side, Laubacher only became a Democrat last year after years as a registered Republican. With a 34-year history in the U.S. Navy, she has rebuked the more radical wing of her newly adopted party, refusing to endorse Melat Kiros after the democratic socialist won the June primary in the Denver-based 1st Congressional District, defeating incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette.
She told Axios in August that Kiros’ comment about 9/11 being America’s fault “just frankly makes me sick.”
“I’m a very moderate person,” Laubacher, 58, said this month during a sit-down interview at a Denver coffee shop. “I’ve never been a straight-party ticket voter — I’ve never felt either party matched me perfectly.”
If there is any year for a Democrat to prevail in the red 4th, Duffy said, “Laubacher has the kind of resume to win the district.” She also has a massive money advantage in the race, having raised more than 11 times what Boebert has.
On Friday, the Cook Political Report plotted a more difficult path for Boebert to retain her seat, moving the 4th District race to its “lean Republican” category from “solid Republican,” skipping over the in-between ranking of “likely Republican.”
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia had already moved the race into the “lean Republican” category.
Boebert’s campaign did not make the congresswoman available for an interview, despite repeated requests from The Denver Post. The campaign also did not respond by deadline to several emailed questions The Post sent about her reelection run and her work in Congress.
The race also has a Libertarian candidate, Douglas Mangeris.
Ag and inflation center stage
During a televised debate earlier this month, the candidates came to some agreement. Both said Trump had skillfully buttoned up the border, with Laubacher calling the “open borders” situation under President Joe Biden “a foolish policy.”
Both said they oppose the use of Flock Safety license plate cameras, oppose allowing more beef from Argentina into the country, and, should Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress next year, they oppose impeachment proceedings going forward against the president.
“I do not want us to waste two more years impeaching the president,” Laubacher said.
But Laubacher has plenty about the president — and by extension Boebert — to criticize, chiefly when it comes to the impact of his budgetary policies on rural hospitals, the war in Iran and the price spikes the conflict has produced.
Trump’s “war of choice,” she said, has made America less safe. And it was started by Israel and the United States as negotiations with the Islamic Republic were ongoing, dashing any chances for diplomacy to succeed.
“We are weakened as a result of this,” Laubacher said in the interview. “There is no great outcome that is going to come out of this. We have lost a lot of credibility in the world.”
Boebert defended the president’s decision to go after Iran.
“I will stand by and say the president is commander in chief,” she said during the Oct. 12 debate. “This was never about regime change — this was about making sure Iran never has a nuclear weapon. (The administration) wants this to come to an end, and so do I.”
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All in all, Boebert defended the Trump administration’s attempts to use tariffs to create a more equitable trade situation for the United States.
“I believe that President Trump is using tariffs as a tool,” Boebert said.
Erin Spaur, executive vice president of the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association said ranchers and farmers are suffering.
The 4th District has more than 17 million acres of land devoted to agriculture and ranching, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
She said challenges — which she described as headed from yellow to blinking red — had been in play long before Trump reclaimed the White House in 2025. But this month’s record diesel prices and other elevated costs haven’t made things easier for those working the land in the district.
“We’re seeing record herd dispersals — that means the family sells out and the cattle are never coming back to that land,” Spaur said.
Farmers and ranchers have also blamed measures from voters and Democrats in control of state government for making life harder, namely the wolf reintroduction program that has resulted in livestock losses and agricultural labor laws that eat into profits.
“There’s been an anti-agricultural signaling from the state government,” Spaur said. “With the layers and stacking of regulations, farmers and ranchers are just calling it quits.”
The organization’s political action committee does not endorse individual candidates.
At the debate, Boebert said the Trump administration is trying to ease the pain. She cited the president’s controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month to import millions of tons of diesel from Russia, despite the country’s continued attacks on Ukraine.
“I do believe the president is using all his capability to lower the price of diesel when Americans are demanding it,” she said.
But with the war about to enter its ninth month, and global fuel traffic still pinched by the fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz, Laubacher said there are few signs that inflation is about to come under control.
She tells the story of meeting with a farmer in Lamar who told her the cost of a bolt for his tractor had quadrupled under Trump.
“It’s crippling,” Laubacher said.
Stark fundraising difference
Both women are newcomers to the district.
For years, Laubacher lived in Littleton just a few miles from the 4th District. But she didn’t make it inside its borders until she moved to Highlands Ranch with her husband two years ago. During the Oct. 12 debate, moderator Kyle Clark of 9News asked Laubacher if she had changed her party status solely to run for Congress.
She fell back on her long military service in her response, saying party affiliation is not something she places in high regard.
“I served my country, not a party,” she said.
Boebert moved to the 4th District less than a year before she was elected to represent it in November 2024. That move was the result of a scramble by the congresswoman to leave the 3rd District, which she had represented since 2021, after it became apparent that her long history of drama and controversies would likely cost her the seat.
She told Clark in the debate that she has learned to “disagree better” after he noted that she hasn’t been the subject of as many unflattering headlines of late.
Looming over the race is Laubacher’s enormous money advantage, which CSU’s Duffy said could make the difference in such a challenging year for Republicans. Through Oct. 14, Laubacher had raised $13.7 million to Boebert’s $1.2 million.
Just last week, Laubacher’s campaign put up billboards along interstates 25 and 70 in the district tying Boebert to data center development, an increasingly fraught issue in Colorado and across the country. The signs show Boebert welcoming the facilities to the district, as discussions about a proposed data center in Bennett heat up.
That, despite Boebert co-sponsoring the Ratepayer Protection Act, a bipartisan bill that aims to prevent data centers from passing energy and infrastructure costs onto utility customers.
Duffy said Laubacher’s money will better enable her to get her message out in the last days of the campaign, whether it be on social media, television or on highway signs.
“Having that kind of money advantage is going to help Laubacher,” he said. “But will it be enough?”
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