The conditions of the El Niño weather pattern, which could bring a much-needed wet winter to Colorado, are present and expected to grow stronger than usual this coming year, according to the National Weather Service.
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“There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November (to) January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” according to a Thursday advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The weather pattern, marked by natural warming of the Pacific Ocean, occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
El Nino is here and scientists fear it’ll be big, bad and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires
It primarily impacts the Northern Hemisphere in winter, bringing drier weather to the northern parts of the United States and wetter conditions across the southern United States. Colorado falls in the middle of those two regions, but experts say the pattern typically brings wetter weather to the state.
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A particularly strong El Niño season can also shift the Pacific jet stream, leading to more winter storms over California and the southern United States, according to NOAA.
“Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes,” according to the advisory.
Colorado was experiencing La Niña conditions, which normally brings snow to Colorado’s northern mountains and dry weather to the rest of the state, until April.
This past winter, the state saw one of its lowest snowpacks on record. Earlier this month, Gov. Jared Polis declared a statewide drought emergency. Nearly all of the state is in some form of drought.
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