{"id":1035,"date":"2026-05-31T15:03:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T15:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coloradospringsmoverss.com\/?p=1035"},"modified":"2026-05-31T15:03:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T15:03:31","slug":"18-years-ago-coloradans-started-having-fewer-babies-now-its-a-higher-education-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coloradospringsmoverss.com\/?p=1035","title":{"rendered":"18 years ago, Coloradans started having fewer babies. Now it\u2019s a higher education problem."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Higher education institutions have been staring down a looming demographic reality that threatens not only their financial well-being but the nation\u2019s workforce at large.<\/p>\n

Read more Denver International Airport ground stop lifted, hundreds of flights delayed by storms<\/a><\/p>\n

The number of high school graduates in the country peaked in 2025 at nearly 3.9 million and is expected to steadily decline through 2041, according to data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, which has tracked these numbers since 1979.<\/p>\n

About 18 years ago, Americans stopped having as many babies. <\/p>\n

Between 2007 and 2025, births in the U.S. declined by 16%. In Colorado, they decreased about 8% during the same timeframe, according to Neal Marquez, projections demographer at the Colorado State Demography Office.<\/p>\n

The Boulder-based Western Interstate Commission predicts a 12% decline in Colorado\u2019s high school graduates between 2023 and 2041. A total of 60,387 Colorado students graduated in four years in the 2024-25 school year, according to state data.<\/p>\n

Higher education officials have watched their pool of typical applicants dwindle little by little. Most have been in talks for years on how to pivot to stave off what education officials have collectively dubbed \u201cthe demographic enrollment cliff.\u201d<\/p>\n

In Colorado, many institutions have managed to keep a positive enrollment trajectory so far, but now they\u2019re peering over the edge of the cliff, hoping they can incentivize enough new applicants with promises of affordability and resources.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019ve tried to emphasize is that demography is not destiny,\u201d said Patrick Lane, vice president of policy analysis and research at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. \u201cWe are here at this inflection point where there will be fewer high school graduates in the future, but throughout history, there have been points where the number of births and potential high school graduates have declined, and higher education has found ways to increase access.<\/p>\n

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\u201cAre we able to do that now? That\u2019s the key question.\u201d<\/p>\n

The reason for the decline is largely attributable to a dramatic reduction in pregnancies among teens and young women \u2014 in part due to more accessible contraception \u2014 coupled with economic instability from the Great Recession, Marquez said.<\/p>\n

Higher education experts predict fiercer competition among colleges trying to attract students from a smaller cohort, as well as potential enrollment declines that could rock an institution\u2019s bottom line. Not to mention, critical jobs requiring a degree, like nurses and teachers, need the support of a workforce to best serve their communities.<\/p>\n

How are universities responding?<\/h4>\n

Adams State University, a public regional institution in the San Luis Valley, experienced about 15 years of declining undergraduate enrollment before an upturn in the past few years, President David Tandberg said.<\/p>\n

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In the fall, Adams State announced undergraduate enrollment rose 4.7% from 2024 with 1,721 students attending.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re really proud of that, but it\u2019s not going to get any easier,\u201d Tandberg said.<\/p>\n

There will be much more competition for students among institutions \u2014 not only when it comes to Colorado students, but also college-seekers nationwide \u2014 as fertility rates decrease across the country, Tandberg said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is compounded by the fact that we, as a state, are not importing people at the rate we used to,\u201d Tandberg said. \u201cWe\u2019ve never been great at getting our Colorado high schoolers into our colleges and universities, and yet have had a comparatively high educational attainment rate because we imported people and imported a lot of out-of-state students as a sector, and it looks like that is going to be harder to do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Adams State bills itself as the most diverse public university in Colorado. The Alamosa-based college became the first Hispanic-Serving Institution in the state in 1998, and half of its students are the first in their families to attend college. The school\u2019s largest demographic are students of color.<\/p>\n

Lane and other higher education experts said institutions must focus on recruiting and catering to non-traditional college students.\u00a0It\u2019s a strategy that\u2019s already foundational to Adams State\u2019s mission, as it serves the lowest-income region of the state, Tandberg said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve kind of had the market cornered on that and obviously every other college and university is going to want to move into markets of growth, so we expect increased competition in that regard,\u201d Tandberg said. \u201cWe\u2019ve got to be more innovative, hustle more and we\u2019ve been doing that.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Western Interstate Commission also advises universities on potential ways to offset the decline.<\/p>\n

Removing barriers for non-traditional students like prohibitive costs or complicated admissions and financial aid processes is one way to improve access, said Lane, who helps create the commission\u2019s enrollment reports.<\/p>\n

Lane pointed to Adams State\u2019s direct admissions program as a smart intervention that attracts students who might have otherwise overlooked college.<\/p>\n

Adams State bills itself as the first university in Colorado to offer direct admissions, meaning all graduates of San Luis Valley high schools and a few other districts across the state, including Adams County School District 14, are automatically accepted. That makes Adams State an open-access institution.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have an admissions rate we can adjust to hit our enrollment targets,\u201d Tandberg said. \u201cWe fight for every single student, and, in some ways, that exposes us a little bit more to the demographic declines because the pool we\u2019re pulling from is the pool we\u2019re pulling from, and we get who we get. From our founding, we have had a mission of serving the underserved. We do it tremendously well because that\u2019s our entire mission, and I think state leaders ought to consider that in their funding decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Adams Promise also guarantees free tuition and fees for any in-state, full-time student whose family makes $70,000 or less.<\/p>\n

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\u201cFor institutions that are more selective, this won\u2019t be a huge deal,\u201d Lane said of the enrollment cliff. \u201cThey might just go further down their admission list. But for open-access institutions and community colleges, I think it\u2019s a big deal because, ultimately, enrollment is a big deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

Staying relevant<\/h4>\n

Representatives of the state\u2019s flagship university, for example, appeared less concerned about the decline.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe University of Colorado Boulder is well-positioned to meet our first-year enrollment goals for fall 2026, despite a nationwide demographic decline,\u201d campus spokesperson Nicole Cousins said in a statement. \u201cWhile enrollment figures will not become available until September, when we release our annual student census data, first-year confirmations are up compared to this time last year.\u201d<\/p>\n

At Metropolitan State University of Denver, enrollment has been on the rise, with the Auraria campus institution welcoming more than 18,000 students this fall, a\u202f 3.1% increase\u202fover last year\u2019s enrollment, according to institutional data.<\/p>\n

Notably, there was a 1% increase in students aged 18 to 24 \u2014 the shrinking, traditional college-going age.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom a recruitment standpoint, our admit numbers look strong, so we\u2019re hopeful we can still get one more year where we\u2019re strong on enrollment, but it\u2019s really hard to tell,\u201d said Megan Scherzberg, interim associate vice president of enrollment management. \u201cHowever, we are preparing and having these conversations about what to expect as increased competition hits the state. All of us are also having this conversation of how do we keep our market share and increase our market share when our high school graduate numbers are going down.\u201d<\/p>\n

MSU Denver \u2014 known for serving a large population of , first-generation students, working students, adult learners and parents \u2014 is balancing being more appealing to non-traditional college students with competing for that smaller pool of high school graduates as it works to offset potential enrollment declines.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we think about the more adult learner, non-traditional student, they\u2019re just harder to find,\u201d Scherzberg said. \u201cYou don\u2019t have a captive audience like a junior class, senior class, so that means we\u2019ve got to get more creative: making connections with industry partnerships to think about what the industry needs, digital ads, marketing, branding and showcasing post-grad outcomes related to employment and compensation, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

The university is reaching out to veterans and military-connected students and transfer students while simultaneously hoping the traditional college student finds the university\u2019s first on-campus housing project under construction appealing.<\/p>\n

While enrollment is on the up and up now, Scherzberg extrapolated on why higher education institutions are taking these demographic shifts so seriously.<\/p>\n

\u201cDeclining enrollment for an institution, depending on the institution\u2019s ability to navigate these challenges, could mean closing doors for some smaller institutions if we don\u2019t have the pipeline of students to enter,\u201d she said. \u201cIt could mean losing jobs for faculty and staff, if we don\u2019t have the students to fill the seats. It may mean institutions have to make some difficult decisions with regards to right-sizing and how many students are we able to serve and how many faculty and staff would we need to be able to serve those students.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Perfect storm of fewer students\u2019<\/h4>\n

The University of Denver is going through that right-sizing process now as it grapples with a $30 million budget shortfall. Budget reductions at the private research institution have meant hard conversations about what and who to cut.<\/p>\n

The demographic changes are one of several factors that led to cuts, said Todd Rinehart, CU\u2019s vice chancellor for enrollment.<\/p>\n

Enrollment declined the past two years at DU after years of growth, Rinehart said. Part of that decline, he said, was an intentional strategy by the university to keep the student population more sustainable financially and return to a class size from a decade ago that might be more manageable.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just the smaller number of high school graduates keeping enrollment offices up at night, Rinehart said. In recent years, about 70% of graduating seniors have gone directly to college, Rinehart said. In the past few years, only 60% did.<\/p>\n

Compounding that trend, larger, \u201cname-brand\u201d research universities are expected to expand their freshman class to make up for fewer international students and federal cuts to research dollars executed under the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a perfect storm of fewer students,\u201d Rinehart said.<\/p>\n

Colorado Mesa University President John Marshall views declining enrollment a bit differently than his peers. He went so far as to call the demographic change \u201coverhyped.\u201d Enrollment at CMU has been increasing with 9,788 students signed up this fall, a few more students than the year prior, and nearly 800 more students than in 2023.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost universities are still fishing for kids in a shrinking pond,\u201d Marshall said. \u201cThey\u2019re still trying to go after those kids who have typically had access to college\u2026 are you conceding the other half of kids have no place in college? You have somewhere between 40 to 50% of high school graduates who are going nowhere, and we\u2019re all wringing our hands as though there\u2019s nothing to be done about that. Let\u2019s go get serious about being relevant to everyone.\u201d<\/p>\n

CMU, located in Grand Junction, has invested in trade programs, advisers for first-generation students and merit programs to help support students from middle-income families, Marshall said.<\/p>\n

In the K-12 school district Mesa County Valley District 51, in CMU\u2019s backyard, there were fewer high school seniors last year than the year before, Marshall said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question is, can we still be relevant enough that students vote with their feet in greater numbers and students who haven\u2019t typically gone on to college come to us? And if we can do that, I think we can continue to grow,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Read more Colorado has known for years that it must allow appeals of unemployment overpayments. So why doesn\u2019t it?<\/a><\/p>\n

Get more Colorado news by signing up for our Mile High Roundup email newsletter.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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